@article{oai:stars.repo.nii.ac.jp:00004609,
 author = {一ノ瀬, 篤 and Ichinose, Atsushi},
 issue = {2},
 journal = {桃山学院大学経済経営論集, ST. ANDREW'S UNIVERSITY ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS REVIEW},
 month = {Sep},
 note = {This paper, depending mainly on historical data, argues that the so-called inflation-targeting policy (ITP) will not bring about inflation (or a recovery of the real economy).    In section 1 we argue that though the quantitative monetary easing policy starting in March 2001 contains, to a considerable degree, elements of ITP, deflationary trends in the real economy have not been reversed at all.    In section 2 we divide the logical processes of ITP into two stages and argue that neither will stand up to examination.    The first stage: Supporters of ITP insist that if the government and the Bank declare jointly a clear numerical inflation rate target, the expected real interest rate on lending will be lowered, so that investments in real goods and services will increase. But unless the markets are convinced that the Bank will be able to bring about inflation through one or another concrete means, inflation will not be realized.    Indeed an implicit form of ITP was adopted during the periods of the so-called excess-liquidity inflation in 1973 74 and the so-called asset-inflation (the Bubble) in the latter half of 1980’s. But in these two cases it was not monetary easing policy that brought about the initial inflation. Historical facts show that both the real economy and the stock market were recovering before the start of monetary easing, and that the monetary relaxation only amplified the degree of inflation. Also in the case of the current monetary easing (since July 1991), markets very well understand that the Bank hopes to generate a mild form of inflation. Still, bank lending has not been increased because markets have not been convinced that the Bank has devised an effective means to generate inflation(＝recovery of the real economy).    The second stage: Supporters of ITP insist that investments in real goods and services will increase if the expected real rate of interest is lowered. But as far as our examination of the historical facts since 1970 is concerned, we cannot help but point to a positive correlation between real interest rates and the volume of bank lending; when real interest rate rises, investments in real goods and services increase, and vice versa. In short, it is not certain at all that lowering of the real interest rate on lending will give rise to an increase of investments in real goods and services. What is important is that recovery of the real economy must precede monetary relaxation.    The logical structure of ITP is fragile in the light of historical examination., 2, KJ00000155019, 論文, Article},
 pages = {51--76},
 title = {インフレ ターゲッティング セイサク ノ ケイキ フヨウ コウカ シテキ カイコ ノ カンテン カラ},
 volume = {45},
 year = {2003},
 yomi = {イチノセ, アツシ}
}